Aston Villa v Ipswich

Aston Villa v Ipswich

Ipswich are a mess – make no mistake. Already this season they have replaced the man who replace Mick McCarthy, and still they don’t seem to have worked out that the problems in the club are much more deep rooted than the man picking the side from the limited resources put on his plate. If this sounds like a rant, then perhaps it is.

Anyway, that’s the reality of the situation and it is one which has led to Ipswich conceding a league high of 29 goals on the road this season from just 14 matches – an average of 2.07 goals per game. They travel to Aston Villa this weekend which should be a concern when you consider than only West Brom have scored more home goals than the Villains in the Championship this season. Villa have netted 32 in 14 games.

Their form isn’t great of course – one win in nine, but they have also draw five of those. At home, they have scored 17 in their last seven, so they should be reasonably confident of putting a few past Ipswich.

Now let’s consider one of the key ingredients for Villa – on-loan signing Tammy Abraham. The Chelsea man has scored 17 goals since signing on loan – with the side scoring 40 goals in games in which he’s be involved, so he’s scoring around 43% of Villa’s goals. At home, he’s actually netted 13 times in 11 games, scoring in nine of those games. Villa have scored 26 in those games – giving Abraham 50% of the haul to himself.

Bet365 offer 20/21 about Abraham scoring in this one and he’s 9/2 to score 2+. They both look cracking bets. In the 1st scorer market, he surely shouldn’t be 10/3 either – an e/w bet at that price actually increases your “anytime” price to 10/9 on the place part – Villa are expected to score something in the order of 75% of the goals in this game. If Abraham gets 40% of those, then he should be something like 5/2 to open the scoring. For the record, in his 13 home games this season for Villa, he’s opened the scoring four times.

1.5pts e/w Tammy Abraham 1st Goalscorer at 10/3 (Bet365)

1pt Tammy Abraham to score a brace at 9/2 (General)

1pt Aston Villa to score 3+ at 2/1 (General)