Djokovic v Pouille
Novak Djokovic bids to reach his 24th Grand Slam Final as Lucas Pouille goes for his 1st - the bookies think there is only one winner here and it's hard to argue with them.
The improving Frenchman is getting there now in terms of delivering on his obvious potential, and he may well have enough to nick a set, but beating Djokovic on these Australian courts is not easy - the Serb has won five of the last eight tournaments here - with the 2008 victory also in the bag. I can't look far past a 3-0 but at 4/7 I can't really be advising a bet.
Instead, in the Aces markets there are a couple of bets worth pitching up. Pouille is the bigger server of the two - he serves almost twice as many aces per point as Djokovic, although of course Novak tends to serve slightly fewer service points per game. Overall, I'm projecting something like 0.36 aces per service game on average, with Pouille over twice that rate at something closer to 0.77.
At those numbers we could see Pouille serve somewhere in the order of 12 aces in a three set match, with Djokovic well lower than than. There are two bets I like here. Under 7.5 Aces at 2.08 with Marathon is worth a tickle, while Sky Bet offer a 2.5 ace handicap in favour of Pouille which doesn't look enough - even at 8/11.
This tournament Djokovic has served 31 aces in 143 games - a rate of 0.216 per game or 0.42 per service game. Pouille has served 84 in 224 - a rate of 0.375 per game or 0.75 per service game.
1pt Djokovic Under 7.5 Aces at 2.08 (Marathon)
3.3pts Pouille (-2.5 Aces) to Out Ace Djokovic at 8/11 (Sky)
3pts Pouille Most Aces (Loser if Tie) at 8/11 with PP