Man Utd v Liverpool
It's a surprise to see Man United available at 21/10 in this one given just how much of an impact Ole Gunnar Solksjaer has had since joining the Red Devils.
Those who know me, regularly hear me bang on about the false myth that changing a manager generally changes a clubs fortunes. I'm a solid believer that we typically witness an overdue regression to the mean which would likely have occured in any case, and that when we do witness this, confirmation bias tends to loiter larger in our memories and cognative processing than is truly the reality. With Solksjaer though, I'm convinced there are enough data points to suggest we are seeing a real change in how his charges are playing and preparing for games.
United have won 11 from 13 since he took over, scoring 30 goals in the process. There remains serious problems to solve at the back of course, but United are now playing in a manner which will excite fans ahead of this massive game - one which could have a huge bearing on the eventual destination of the title of course.
United are now the favourites to sneak that fourth Champions League spot, so motivation is high, while Liverpool may be doubting themselves after failing to win five of their last eight matches. They no-longer look invincible.
Using Understat.com as a source for our expected points/goals, we see that since 19th December (when Solksjaer took over), United have collected 25pts from nine games - five more than Liverpool. In terms of expected points it isnt as strong - 18.1 pts for United, and 20.2 for Liverpool. But its close. And in terms of Expected Goals, United posted a decent 20.44 v 11.29 while Liverpool a more impressive 19.75 v 6.95.
Back United here at a really attractive price. This game really could open up, and the home crowd can help United deliver.
1pt Man Utd to beat Liverpool at 21/10 (General)