Premier League Darts Wk 4
Luke Humphries v Gerwyn Price
A cracking match in prospect here, and early birds snaffled some great value on Price immediately after his double header over the weekend in Barnsley, banking titles 5 and 6 of the Players Championship. Among his biggest scalps there were Adrian Lewis (6-4), Nathan Aspinall (7-2), Dave Chisnall (7-4) and Ian White (6-2), and he averaged over 100 in 10 of his 14 matches. Impressive stuff indeed.
Humphries made the trip to Barnsley as well of course, but limped out tamely in the first round of each event, and he’s not really been showing the impressive performances which saw him reach the quarter-finals at the Ally Pally. His scoring power still isn’t there just yet, and this looks a step up too much in my view – he’s only averaged 100 in one of his last 23 matches which just isn’t good enough. We’ll take Gerwyn Price to win 7-3 and 7-5 in this one in preference to backing him at odds-on prices in the match betting.
In the 180s market I definitely think Sky Bet are taking a chance in offering Humphries at 9/4 to hit the most in this one. My data has the pair pretty close, and even accounting for Price’s good form I’m struggling to make the true price longer than about 15/8 on his challenger here.
Coral make the last leg winning double 9/4 to be double top. If Price wins the match, or it ends a draw, then we know Price threw the last dart (well pretty near anyway). That’s about a 75% chance according to the match odds, and he’s expected to hit D20 about 44% of the time on my data. Tie in the chance that Humphries win the match on D20 and you’ve got yourself around a 13/8 shot in my view. 9/4 is great value.
Finally, and I appreciate five bets on one match feels silly, but value is value! Humphries can be backed at 3/1 with BetFred to open the match with a total score of over 100 on his opening three darts. That’s great value and should be closer to 2/1 in my view.
1pt Price to win 7-3 at 6/1 (Hills)
1pt Price to win 7-5 at 11/2 (Hills)
1pt Humphries most 180s at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
3pts Winning Double to be D20 at 9/4 (Coral)
2pts Humphries to score over 100 1st 3 darts at 3/1(Betfred)
Daryl Gurney v Rob Cross
Cross is getting back to something like his best darts and is sure to worry Gurney in this one – I’m not sure I can stretch to backing him at 5/4 though against such a capable player as Gurney who looks to have benefited from a season under his belt in this competition. Having looked through the specials I’ve not found an angle in at all in this one.
Mensur Suljovic v Peter Wright
The Gentle is the clear outsider in this one, but I’m far from convinced that should be the case in this one – he’s won six of their last seven meetings and neither man can exactly claim to be in great form. This one really could go either way therefore, and I’d rather be a 13/8 Mensur backer than a 7/5 Wright backer all day long.
It’s the same story in the 180s market, where Suljovic is a 15/8 outsider to hit the most in the match – while Wright is in at no longer than evens. The last 12 month data makes these two pretty much level pegging at 0.25 180s per leg each, so the Austrian is worth a bet there as well in my view.
1pt Suljovic to beat Wright at 13/8 (General)
1pt Suljovic Most 180s at 15/8 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Suljovic to win 7-4 at 7/1 (General)
Michael van Gerwen v James Wade
Always a great battle, but one which MvG normally gets the better of, winning 34 of their 49 meetings, and seven of their nine Premier League meetings. The match odds therefore look about right making MvG the 2/7 favourite, and Wade available at 7/1. In fact, most firms have done a pretty good job all round here, with the Dutchman a 4/7 shot for most 180s and all the check out markets pretty much in line with our database queries.
One bet which looks worth taking is Bet Fred’s 6/4 on MvG hitting Over 100 with his first three darts. He let us down on this bet last week of course, but managed it against Suljovic in week 2, and would be expected to last this bet around 45% of the time – around a 6/5 shot basically. It’s mostly a match to enjoy on it’s own merits, but this one is worth a small bet.
1pt MvG to score Over 100 1st 3 darts at 6/4 (Betfred)
Michael Smith v Raymond van Barneveld
After draws with Mensur Suljovic and Gerwyn Price, I’m not prepared to rule our RvB just yet. He’s got one last season to put on his best show and he remains a class player, even if his heart looks a little gone in some of the minor tournaments. The pair have evenly shared their 15 meetings (one draw) on the PDC, so with current form it’s certainly reasonable to see Smith the favourite here though – especially since Barney win their first five encounters in the 2011-2013 era. Since then the head to head reads 7-1-2 in favourite of Smith. In a race to six though, I can’t back him at 4/6.
In fact, again the markets look solid in this one, so just the one special bet, and we like the first dart of the match to hit Single 20 at 10/11 with Betfair / Paddy Power. I make it an 8/11 here with Smith one of the highest rates in the game for opening on a single 20.
2.2pts First Dart of the Match Single 20 at 10/11 with Paddy Power / Betfair