F1 2019
F1 Winter Testing is notoriously hard to read, especially if you are only prepared to look at the head line times and unwilling to invest the time in understanding who set what time, on what sort of fuel load and on which tyres. Luckily for you lazy folk, we’ve done that for you, and we’ll deliver a very quick summary of what we expect for 2019 before advising a handful of ante-post bets.
Who is going to be at the top?
All the evidence points to Ferrari. While they topped the headline times in 2018, last season also suggested Mercedes were perhaps the better of the pair on the long-runs. This season, whichever way you cut it, Ferrari look to have the edge. Over the single lap they looked quick, and once adjusted for fuel loads and tyres they may be somewhere in the order of 0.4-0.5 seconds quicker, while the gap in full race trim may not be quite as large, but it’s enough to make them favourites for the title in my eyes.
Perhaps the most interesting unknown is just how quick Charles Leclerc may be. Vettel is favoured by the team right now, and will be given preference early in the season, but that could change if the young Frenchman is as quick as some are expecting. He’s clearly a superb talent.
Red Bull enter the Honda generation, and the new package looks to be performing well. Whether it will be reliable enough is probably still a question, but the long-run pace left Max Verstappen predicting they would be in the hunt for top points.
For a bet, I’ll be looking to get with Ferrari at the sharp end though. One special which stands out is with Sky Bet for Vettel to win the Title and Ferrari to win the Constructors title at 11/4.
Since Michael Schumacher won his first F1 title in a Ferrari (2000), only one man has managed to win an F1 title in a car which didn’t win the Constructors Title in the same season. Lewis Hamilton’s win in 2008 for McLaren saw Ferrari crowned constructors but aside from that it’s always been the same. Given I make the 2/1 on Vettel to win the title marginally on the generous side, it has to be a bet.
Staying with Ferrari, Sky Bet are probably close to the mark in making Charles Leclerc odds-on to win 3+ race, but that’s at odds with Ladbrokes and Corals who offer 6/5 on him winning over 1.5 races (i.e. 2+). Leclerc is going to be quick, and he looks likely to enjoy some titanic battles with Max Verstappen in years to come. He’s in that class. 6/5 is too big.
Who will win in the Midfield?
It’s going to be pretty tight, but Haas look to be leading the way as we open up the season – which feels logical given where they were last season. Renault have a strong driver line-up in Ricciardo and Hulkenburg, but I favour Kevin Magnussen who claimed 9th in the title last season, and could be the best of the chasers. He’s 9/1 with Paddy Power to win the title without the “Big 6” – so taking out both Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bulls.
Who will scrap at the back?
Williams’ Paddy Lowe took a leave of absence from the sport just days after turning up for winter testing late with a car which looked well short on both pace and finesse. It certainly doesn’t feel like a coincidence and it looks like Williams have lost patience and are looking for someone to carry the can for what may be a long hard season ahead.
2pts Vettel to win the Drivers Championship and Ferrari to win the Constructors at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
2pts Charles Leclerc to win over 1.5 Races at 6/5 (Ladbrokes / Corals)
1pt Kevin Magnussen to win without Big 6 at 9/1 (Paddy Power)
2pts Haas to beat Racing Point at 19/20 – Constructors Match Bet (Corals)