Premier League Darts - Week 6
The Premier League lands in Nottingham this week for a sixth installment. So far we have James Wade, Rob Cross, Michael van Gerwen and Gerwyn Price all level pegging on seven points, with Peter Wright just a point behind. Gerwyn Price remains unbeaten, while Raymond van Barneveld may be wishing he hadn’t been wild-carded in – winless and just two points so far.
Nathan Aspinall v Michaal Smith
Despite reaching the final of the World Championships in January, Michael Smith has yet to catch light in the Premier League this season and there could be value in opposing him when he faces challenger Nathan Aspinall. It’s fair to say Aspinall is one of the best among those who have come in to replace Anderson, and if you believe the validity of the Darts Elo ratings (for what it’s worth, I think they are a far better representation than the PDC rankings) then Aspinall is up to 7th in the World.
The trust is somewhere lower, but he’s probably into the top 16 now, having won the UK Open and reached the semi-finals of the World Championships. He has the ability to beat Smith given any sort of sniff. Spreadex offer 9/4 which feels decent enough.
Aspinall is also on offer with Bet Fred at 9/4 to score over 100 on his first visit. He’s a good scorer and our model pitches him at nearer the 7/4 mark with no margin, so he’s definitely value at that price. In the same market, we make Michael Smith no longer than 6/4 to open with a convincing visit, so again, the 7/4 represents value. It’s all about the numbers here.
Finally, while we are betting on some weird stats markets, the highest check out market looks to lean in favour of Michael Smith – he’s checked out 13.6% of legs with a 100+ check out over the past two seasons, compared to just 8.8% for Aspinall. In back the challenger is pretty much the highest player we’ve seen in terms of check out % being under 40.5 in any given leg.
1pt Aspinall to beat Smith at 9/4 (Spreadex)
1pt Aspinall to score over 100 1st 3 Darts at 9/4 (Bet Fred)
1pt Smith to score over 100 1st 3 Darts at 7/4 (Bet Fred)
1.2pts Smith to have the highest Check Out at 5/6 (General)
James Wade v Mensur Suljovic
Wade might be top of the table, but Suljovic has an 8-5 head to head over his rival and looks to have his measure. It’s a real surprise to see the Austrian the considerable outsider at 11/5 and that has to be worth a bet in my eyes – I’d be close to pick-em in this match personally.
It’s a similar story on the 180s, where Suljovic’s 10 in 55 legs so far in the Premier League doesn’t stand up well against Wade’s 16 in 51 – but these are small samples, and I’d prefer to bet on the 12 month averages, which make Suljovic favourite to hit the most. Suljovic at 6/4 is longer than it should be.
1pt Suljovic to beat Wade at 11/5 (Blacktype)
1pt Suljovic to hit most 180s at 6/4 (General)
Rob Cross v Raymond van Barneveld
Cross is unbeaten against v van Barneveld in their four career meetings, and on paper it is getting easier and easier for him as the RvB star is waning. He’s a justifiable favourite in the market, and probably short enough if truth be told – he’s just 8/15. Perhaps the way into this match is a very small interest bet on Cross winning 7-4 at an attractive 5/1.
He starts with the darts so will throw on odd-numbered legs, and it’s very conceivable to see a single break winning the Englishman this match. We’ve already seen the initial thrower win five of the 25 matches this campaign.
0.5pts Rob Cross to win 7-4 at 5/1 (BetVictor)
Gerwyn Price v Michael van Gerwen
This is a huge match – Gerwyn Price has improved enormously over the past six months and looks very more capable of mixing it with the likes of MvG and Gary Anderson than anyone we’ve seen in recent years. But this is MvG of course – an absolute machine.
There is also the small matter of the psychological hurdle that Price needs to find his way over at some point – he’s lost 13 from 13 against MvG and just doesn’t seem to be able to turn on his best performances against the Dutchman, and he’s rarely been close in those defeats. Last year’s Premier League saw him lose 7-3, and before that it was a 6-3 loss in Barnsley. He’s lost 4-2 at the World Championships, while their 2017 meetings saw MvG win 6-2, 8-0, 4-0 and 11-3.
The one thing in Price’s favour is that they haven’t met since last March, since when the majority of improvement has come in his game. Even so, I can’t bring myself to back anything in the match result market here. It will probably move onto 14-0 but Price isn’t without a chance.
Instead we’ll head to Bet Fred on this one, where their odds of 6/4 on MvG opening with a score over 100 look appealing. Our data set – updating at Week 1 of the Premier League, saw MVG achieve that in 53% of his preview 114 matches, and whilst he may not maintain that level, anything over 6/5 is a bet on that selection.
2pts MvG to score Over 100 1st Three Darts at 6/4 (Betfred)
Peter Wright v Daryl Gurney
With Peter Wright struggling a little bit lately, Daryl Gurney has a chance to continue his climb up the rankings. He looks more comfortable in this company than he did in last year’s event and that experience has undoubtedly served him well.
This could well be close, and the 15/4 on a tie certainly appeals in a match like this. We’ve seen at least one draw on every night of the Premier League so far this season, and eight from the 25 matches in total so far. A shade under 4/1 looks more than fair – especially when you consider they draw both their meetings in the Premier League in 2018.
1pt Match to be a draw at 15/4 (Spreadex)