The Grand National
40 Horses, 30 Jumps, One Race.
Our Record and how we approach the race
We’ll continue this year with the same format which has seen us return one winner (16/1) and three further placed horses (14/1, 16/1, 25/1) from nine runners over the last two renewals. We use the trends, but in a way that most “trend seekers” aren't.
Most trends you’ll read in various publications list a load of relatively obvious facts. Winners tend to have won over fences before. Winners tend to have won over longer distances. Winners tend to sit in a certain age group. All are true of course, but they are largely meaningless unless you consider the sample sizes as well, not to mention that often nearly the whole field ticks each of those trends!
As an example, if we said 80% of Grand National winners were aged 8-12, we might immediately start looking for horses within that age range. What about if I now told you that 98% of runners in the race were aged 8-12? Suddenly that “positive" trend actually becomes a big “negative”. Hopefully you get the point.
So essentially, we are all about testing the trends with samples.
Recent Renewals are important
Various changes have been made over the years, so looking at more recent runnings for the trends is really important. For instance, the weight allowances changed a few years ago, which suddenly meant the best quality horses on pure ability quickly found themselves in a much better position against the handicappers. The fences were also reduced in size and depth around the same time – and suddenly horses who were adequate jumpers found themselves in with a better chance against more proven jumpers. We factor all this in.
Trend 1 - Staying Power
Make no mistake, getting round the Grand National is tough. It’s not quite as long as it used to be, but if you haven’t proved yourself round the longest of trips at some stage in your career, this is a difficult day to prevail for the first time.
We’re therefore looking for horses who have won over a good old trip, or have had notable performances in some of the key Grand National Trials.
We can see from the table below that horses who have placed in a race over a longer distance have a distinct advantage at getting a result in the big one. Of the 86 horses since 2013 who have had a crack at the race having never placed over a distance of 3m 2f+, only 3% have placed. Of the 89 who arrived having proved themselves in the frame of a race of 3m 4f+, 21 made the frame – a whopping 24%.
Another notable trend is performance in a key trial (Welsh, Irish, Scottish, Grand Nationals, Becher Chase, Ladbrokes Trophy, Cheltenham Cross Country Chase, Cheltenham Gold Cup). The below table separates previous runners by whether they have secured a top-five finish in one of those races previously.
Again, the place column is pretty compelling! Of those who have achieved it, 23% have gone on to place in the Grand National, while of those who haven’t, just 6% have upped their game for this one.
Combining those two trends shows some amazing numbers – 33% of runners who have placed over a distance AND in a key trial have gone on to place in this one, while those who have hit NEITHER trend have returned a place just 5% of the time!
This year we have 14 horses in the field who tick BOTH boxes, and a further 10 who tick one box.
Those in the former group are Anibale Fly, Tiger Roll, Minella Rocco, Pleasant Company, Ballyoptic, One for Arthur, Ramses de Teillee, Vieux Lion Rouge, Vintage Clouds, General Principle, Folsom Blue, Bless the Wings, Joe Farell and Bais Des Iles.
Notable mentions go to Don Poli, Dounikos, Rathvinden, Rock The Kasbah, Regal Encore, Step Back, Ultragold, Walk in the Mill, Just the Par, The Young Master.
Trend 2 - Form
It's perhaps not rocket science to say that being in some sort of form can't be a bad thing when you've got 39 other runners to see off. Nevertheless, applying some science in this area is no bad thing.
The scoring system I use for form is to award performance points for horses who have placed at some point since last August, additional points if they have placed more than once, and further points if they have won.
Starting with landing at least a place, you can see from the following table, it's not a huge factor, but it is there on a large enough sample.
Of those who have come into the National without any season form to speak of, four of the five had previously placed of the National course fences.
Looking at winning form, it's a similar picture. Noteworthy - especially in the placed horses, although the sample sizes are relatively small so need to be treated with caution. Here's the corresponding table for horses with winning form already under their belt that season.
Horses among this years fields who are without a place all season include Outlander, Don Poli, Minella Rocco, Pleasant Company, Ballyoptic, One for Arthur, Nobel Endeavor, Monbeg Notorious, Step Back, Valseur Lido, Bless The Wings, Just A Par.
Those who have won twice or more include Tiger Roll, Lake View Lad, Magic of Light, Jury Duty, Ramses de Teillee and The Young Master, while Go Conquer, Sandymount Duke, Mall Dini, Blow by Blow, Vintage Clouds and Walk in the Mill have all posted at least two places.
Weight
As a handicap race, weight plays a huge part in this race. The job of the handicapper is to get all the horses to a level field. That never happens of course, but it's the general aim. The better horses are laden with more weight.
The race has been through a variety of rule changes over the years, to treat some of the "old bollocks" trends with caution.
Rule changes in 2009 saw the best horses given a better chance - their weight penalty was dropped by 2lbs, wihile the bottom weight remained static at 10 stone. Suddenly the superstars leaped to the front.
2013 saw another change, as calls for an easier course to prevent needless deaths in the sport saw the fences reduced to a softer hurdle and the distance dropped down slightly. Those at the lower ends of the weights now have a big advantage as seen over the past five years' trends.
Note the marked drop-off in horses getting home towards the front of the field (or even getting round) when carrying the bigger weights. You don't want to come here completely in the grip of the handicapper basically.
I wont list the horses - all your form cards can do this for you.
Horses for Courses
Course and Distance form a pretty staple diet for Horse Racing fans, so it would be silly not to factor in Aintree form in our thinking. The fences here are like nowhere else as well.
The following table shows how horses who have previously been here performed against their ultimate Grand National performance.
79 other runners came without a previous run. Note those 25 who came having never finished the course on their previous efforts - only 20% got round the course, and just 2 of them (8%) actually finished in the places.
Despite the smaller sample size, it's also worth looking at how returning horses do to the Grand National. If they have shown ability before, they have a chance - the following table highlights it clearly:
So having been round the course is clearly a strong indicator of getting round the course into the places (18-19%) while those who have fallen or been pulled up previously are worth striking off quickly.
Those coming back having previously completed the course in an earlier year are Tiger Roll, Anibale Fly, Pleasant Company, One for Arthur, Regal Encore, Vieux Lion Rouge, Valseur Lido, Bless the Wings, Juat a Par and Baie Des Iles.
The first four come here with considerable weight penalties though however, so treat with a little caution. For our scoring system they are a positive, but the latter runners are a stronger positive - not least Valseur Lido who has grabbed 12lbs!
Pulling it all together
So I won't bore you with the spreadsheets, but taking all of that info, cutting and dicing it, and also looking at a few other less interesting or more marginal trends, we've run them all through our scoring matrix, and come up with the following shortlist of 25% of the field.
VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR) TIGER ROLL (IRE) RAMSES DE TEILLEE (FR) VINTAGE CLOUDS (IRE) BLESS THE WINGS (IRE) GENERAL PRINCIPLE (IRE) WALK IN THE MILL (FR) FOLSOM BLUE (IRE)
So which are we backing in the big race?
We'll first off I'll take Vieux Lion Rouge at a mammoth 50/1 with William Hill - among the firms paying 6 places at 1/5. He's well treated by the handicapper carrying 10st 6lbs into this and is well proven over the distance and in previous visits to the National - finishing 6th, 7th and 9th in three appearances. He also won a key trial at the Becher Chase in 2016.
Next up and I like the look of Ramses de Teille who joins our first pick from the French contingent. He's posted a 2nd in the 2018 Welsh Grand National which is an excellent sign and has already won twice since August. 25/1 looks a terrific bet.
Next we have Vintage Clouds - a horse I just love. With just 10st 4lbs to lug round this year he'll be walking on air, and he's already got form on his side this year, proven over the course, and just looks a fine fit for the race having already made the frame in the Scottish and Welsh Nationals. A couple of the five place firms go 14/1, but we'll be happy with the 12/1 and the extra place on him. He continues to get better and better.
Another well weighted runner is General Principle who won the 2018 Irish National. There is still something for this one to prove, but there are very few negatives against him in our ratings. 40/1 looks a fair price given the potential.
Finally, Valseur Lido is my wildcard this year. He got round here in 8th last season and comes with a massive 12lb advantage against that effort. That simply has to mean something, and despite missing a host of the trends used for the other four picks, I'm happy to take a chance on being completely wrong at 66/1. Plenty of better judges than me are giving him a chance in the conditions, so if you can't beat them, join them. Especially at 66/1.
One last word on Tiger Roll. Based on all out criteria, he comes out very strongly, but at 4/1 it's too short to warrant recommending him as a bet. If you get him in the office sweepstake though.... well, happy days.
1pt e/w on each of the five suggested horse.