Premier League Darts
Mensur Suljovc v Daryl Gurney
The games are getting big now, and both Suljovic and Gurney have a very real chance of reaching the semi-finals now after a strong opening half to the competition. Tied on 12 points with Wade and Price it’s starting to look like two from four.
Gurney has always handled playing Suljovic’s tempo well, holding an 8-5 head-to-head advantage, and this will surely be another close battle. The bookies make Gurney their 5/4 favourite and I can’t find fault with that price personally.
Over the reasonably short format, having Gurney odds-on for the most 180s looks a step too far. Our model makes the most 180s odds around 6/4 Suljovic and 5/4 Gurney with the draw around a 5/1 shot. With that in mind we’ll advise a small bet on Suljovic Most 180s at 21/10 with SpreadEx in this one. We’ll keep stakes small with the recent memory of Gurney smashing in six of them last week.
For another stats bet, Suljovic is never hugely reliable when first to the oche. Our model projects him to have around a 45% chance of shooting under 90 on his first visit of the match – at odds with BetFred’s 7/4 offered about that outcome.
1pt Suljovic Most 180s at 21/10 (SpreadEx)
1pt Suljovic to score under 90 1st three darts at 7/4 (BetFred)
Rob Cross v Michael van Gerwen
MvG has owned Rob Cross throughout their 15 previous meetings, winning 12 of them, but Cross is arguably in the form of his life right now possess a genuine threat here. I was certainly surprised to see MvG just 4/7 in the match betting given Cross has collected more points so far in the Premier League. He has to have a decent chance of causing an upset.
MvG is usually so clinical against the throw, pouncing on any opportunity, so it’s highly noteworthy that Rob Cross has actually won 28 legs against the throw, versus 27 from MvG this tournament. There really is very little to split the blokes after 115 legs of darts each. The draw always concerns me when backing an outsider, so backing Cross/Draw looks the best approach here at 13/8 with Sky Bet. You wouldn’t be at all surprised with a 7-7 draw which is actually the market favourite result, but looks tempting enough at 9/2 with BetVictor.
At risk of getting boring, our stats haven’t changed, and nor have BetFred’s odds, so we retain our interesting in MvG’s first three darts for another week. 6/4 is on offer and we make this much closer to evens, so a bet has to be the action on this one.
1pt Cross/Draw in Double Chance market at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
0.5ots Match to end 7-7 at 9/2 (Bet Victor)
2pts MvG to score over 100 on 1st Three Darts at 6/4 (Bet Fred)
Michael Smith v Gerwyn Price
Smith has struggled to follow up on that terrific World Championships performance, and is currently bottom of those left in the Premier League and fading from contention fast. At this level, his 39.44% checkout rate hasn’t been quite good enough, and his usual heavy scoring has deserted him.
Gerwyn Price on the other hand has been going from strength to strength, and he’s rapidly become a player to be feared even amongst this elite company. Even with Smith’s impressive 12-5 head-to-head against Price you have to fancy the Welshman in terms of how things are going right now. At 8/5 Price looks the best value in my eyes.
I’m not ready to change the record yet, and a winning formula this season has been backing Michael Smith to score over 100 with his first three darts. The stats make 7/4 too long, and it’s landed in 7 of the 11 Premier League matches so far this season. BetFred is the place to go for this one.
2pts Smith Over 100 1st Three Darts at 7/4 (Betfred)
1pt Gerwyn Price to beat Michael Smith at 8/5
Peter Wright v James Wade
James Wade landed a double over the weekend, taking down both Players Championship events in Barnsley, and he’s the marginal favourite when he comes up against Peter Wright on Thursday. He has looked the better player for a while now, with Wright in a little lull below his potential and Wade probably towards the top of his – despite a small element of inconsistency.
Wade beat a posy of good quality opponents over the weekend, with Jeffrey de Zwaan (8-5), Michael Smith (7-4 and 8-6), Stephen Bunting (6-4) and Ian White (7-5) among those he swept aside. Having won the Players Champ 9 a fortnight ago as well (once again beating Michael Smtih), he’s now on a terrific run of 21 wins in his last 23 matches (including one draw). He’s averaged over 100 in seven of those, and have been above 90 in every single one. With all that in mind, he’s a strong bet at 11/8 in my eyes here.
In the 180s James Wade again looks long at 2/1 to come out with more maximums. Our model gives it around a 39.7% chance – nearer to 6/4, so Sky Bet’s carrot looks worth nibbling at in. Our inputs are based on Wade getting around 0.23 180s per leg, with Wright at 0.25 – which are confirmed by their most recent 18 matches – Wade hitting 46 in 199 legs and Wright 48 in 192.
3pts Wade to beat Wright at 11/8 (General)
1pt Wade most 180s at 2/1 (Sky Bet)