Premier League Darts - Finals Night
Premier League Darts reaches the finals this week, with four men left standing. In the Green corner we have the prodigious Michael van Gerwen of course. World No.1.
Rob Cross and James Wade are also there - two men who have very much found their top gears over recent months. Since the World Championships, Cross has reached two finals (European Darts Open and UK Open) and a further three semi-finals, while Wadenhas claimed no fewer than three titles (all PDPA Players Championship events), reached the final of The Masters, and the semi finals of the Austrian Open.
Our final man represents Northern Ireland - Daryl Gurney. He is up to 4th in the World on the Order of Merit now and really is at the top of his game. It's a terrific line-up all things considered.
MvG v Gurney
Michael van Gerwen holds a 19-5 career head-to-head record against Gurney, which extends to 4-1 when looking only at the longer format matches (this is a first to ten legs). However we cannot forget that Gurney has already bagged a brace of 2019 Premier League victories over van Gerwen in the group stage. At 1/5 the bookies assertion looks to tally fairly with the longer term trends and I'm not prepared to argue with them on the Match Betting market.
Bet Fred have slightly trimmed the odds on MvG hitting over 100 with his first three darts, but he remains value at 13/10 - it's close to an 11/10 shot on the long-term data and he tends to play his best darts in big matches.
Gurney is playing well enough to run MvG close in this one, and with MvG holding the darts courtesy of his higher placing the league phase, the 10-7 correct score looks a fair shout at 8/1.
1pt MvG to score over 100 1st Three Darts at 13/10 (Betfred)
1pt MvG to win 10-7 at 8/1 (Marathon)
Cross v Wade
I'm really excited for this one, and I'm sure it won't let us down. These two are both at the very top of their games right now, with the bookies preferring Cross - he's their 8/13 favourite in most places. I'm in the Wade camp however as I think he's playing at a similar level right now, but has a terrific 5-2 head-to-head advantage over the past two seasons. Longer term they are 6-6 when meeting each other.
Bet Fred offer Wade at 11/8 to reach the final which feels the best value. Over the course of 16 League matches, Cross enjoyed a +26 difference, with Wade close behind on +20. I make this pretty much split down the middle, with the format being long enough to negate too much of the throw advantage Cross will enjoy in leg 1.
We'll also stick with the 7/4 on offer about Wade hitting 90-100 (inc) in his first three darts. He's landed this bet in four of his last six Premier League matches and is as straight as they come on the 20.
1pt Wade to hit 90-100 (inc) 1st Three Darts at 7/4 (BetFred)
2pts Wade to beat Cross at 11/8 at (BetFred)