Scotland (W) v Argentina (W)
Failure to get a result against Argentina on Wednesday would see Scotland finish bottom of Group D – a really disappointing outcome for all concerned – so getting into the South American’s from the very start must be a high priority for Scotland. They also stand a very real chance of qualifying for the next round if they could win this one – especially if they could do so by more than a single goal.
Four of the best “3rd placed” sides will reach the last 16. China and Brazil are already out of reach, but a result here would leave them ahead of Nigeria , while it’s hard to envisage Cameroon, New Zealand, Chile or Thailand finishing in a better state. Scotland really should still be qualifying despite their precarious position.
Both Scotland and Argentina have each faced Japan and England, so if we take that sample (admittedly very small) as a basis for their performance so far over 180 minutes, Scotland look much the better side. Over those 180 minutes, Scotland have “lost” 4-2, while Argentina have “lost” 1-0, but in terms of chances created, Scotland were out performance 20-32 compared to Argentina’s 8-27. On target efforts saw Scotland out-gunned 8-12 compared to 3-10 for Argentina, while the Scots lost the corner count 8-15, while Argentina went down 0-12.
Ranked 20th in the World, Scotland should be considerably better than Argentina (37th) and coming into the World Cup there was a considerable gulf in their Elo ratings – Argentina on 1626 pts and Scotland on 1812. 150pts is a big difference and I’m wholly unconvinced that the 8/13 available on Scotland represents their chances of a win here.
I’m even less convinced on the (-1) line, with motivations high in the Scotland camp to kick on if they do get their noses in front. Goal difference could be the difference between progressing or not, so the 9/5 with Spreadex on them winning by two or more goals is very reasonable.
2pts Scotland to beat Argenina at 8/13
2pts Scotland (-1) to beat Argentina at 9/5