France (W) v USA (W)
This is, without any doubt, the biggest match of the World Cup so far. Perhaps the biggest Women’s match ever in fact. With the USA considered a 9/5 chance to win the tournament, and France trading at 9/2, the winners are by far and away considered the Champions Elect at this stage. This match has an implied 53.9% chance of producing the eventual champion, and that’s before either are through to the semi-finals.
What an opportunity therefore for the hosts to entertain and delight their home fans. The USA however, ranked #1 in the world and boasting a veritable feast of experience at the highest level, represent the sternest of tests. No fewer than eight of the USA team are in the “International 100 club”
Both sides have performed in line with expectations so far, with each progressing from the Group Stage with a 100% record. The only slight chink so far appeared in the French armour as it took them extra-time to defeat Brazil – a side who they would have expected to dispose of with relative ease.
The USA of course finished Group F with a +18 goal difference! They put 13 past Thailand, beat Chile 3-0 and then made light work of a Sweden side who had taken the opportunity to rotate plenty of players, beating them 2-0. They were perhaps slightly fortunate to beat Spain in the last 16 as decisions look to have gone their way, but they were the better side in that one.
So what do we expect here?
Well there is absolutely no doubt that USA possess the better players, but France have an enormous following here, and this one should be played in front of over 50,000 fans in Paris. That’s a considerable home advantage in the ladies game. The French squad is also packed with players who are benefiting from being involved with the top clubs in the domestic game now. They have no fewer than seven of their squad hailing from the all-conquering Lyon, inclucing Eugenie Le Sommer, Amandine Henry and Wendie Renard.
I’ve got to place my bets on France here as a result, with the bookies willing to give you as big as 5/2 about a home win. It will surely be tight if it does happen though – the USA have actually kept clean sheets in 18 of their last 23 matches – albeit many of those against much lesser opponents than France.
1pt France to beat USA at 5/2 (General)