League One Antepost
Sunderland are hot favourites for the League One title, but little has changed from last season and we could be set for a re-run. They are slightly longer (4/1 this time around whereas they went off 3/1 last season), but they have the same man at the helm, are the same big club to be gunned at, and struggled to stamp their authority on the division in 18/19. The key performance metrics suggested they were perhaps fortunate to finish the season as strongly as they did last season.
The section does look weaker this time around of course – Bolton are in all sorts of trouble, Ipswich are surely being overrated as 3rd favourites in the division and Rotherham are probably no stronger than the sides who came up.
Portsmouth are installed as second favourites, and I can’t argue with that at all. Nearly twice the price of Sunderland? I’d definitely fancy taking on anyone who wants to justify that one on the debating society agenda.
They amassed 88 points last season (three more than Sunderland) and would have been playing in the Championship this season had they scored a single goal more in any one of their 46 matches last campaign. They’ve retained the same squad as last season so get serious points for continuity, and in Kenny Jackett have one of the best men for the job of leading them up. The price has contracted over the past week, and I’m wishing this preview went out a few days ago, but at 6/1 there remains enough juice to make Portsmouth a great play - especially after adding John Marquis this week!
Another interesting side are Peterborough, who have Darren Ferguson looking for another promotion. He has brought George Boyd back to the club as well, while Mo Eisa looks a great bit of business. Whether we can get involved at around the 10/1 mark is less certain, and they are probably a watching brief at this point.
Slightly further down the order, MK Dons made an excellent appointment when they brought in Paul Tisdale last season, and were rewarded with promotion. Almost exactly 50% of promoted clubs over the past 20 seasons have posted a top half finish, and the Dons look as well set as most to continue that trend. The squad looks altogether stronger than last season, and having retained Kieren Agard was an important target for the summer. At even money with William Hill for a top half finish they looks reasonably priced.
At the other end, Bolton are in heaps of trouble. At time of writing (Thursday evening) the long awaited Football Ventures take over has still not been completed, and the club are worryingly low of contracted professionals - just eight at the last count of whom three are goalkeepers.
They will also start the season with a 12 point deduction in place for being in administration, which means their points target to avoid relegation is probably in the order of 62 points before a ball has been kicked - enough to have almost been chasing the playoffs in some seasons.
It's anyone's guess quite how things will work out, and there are a few players waiting in the wings ready with their pens to sign on if money starts getting paid, but they are woefully unprepared for the season having not played a proper friendly and could yet start the season very badly indeed. Even if they do get into a position of beginning to sign players, they have not had an active scouting operation in place for over six months now!
Paddy Power still offer 4/5 about them being relegated which is simply too long given all the problems they have faced over the summer.
For a bigger price, the 6/1 on Bristol Rovers might be a bit edgy, with plenty for the club to prove and relatively little resources available to help them. A fair few have come and gone over the summer, but there are no really proven signings, and the side have been gradually dropping down the division over the past three years - eventually finishing 15th last time out. Of course, with Bury and Bolton both starting out with big penalties it may very well be 2 from 22 that join them, but the 6/1 looks generous enough when you strike through 7 or 8 sides who are sure to be nearer the top than the bottom.
Recommended Bets
1.5pts e/w Portsmouth to win the title at 6/1 (Bet365) - 1/4 123
3pts MK Dons Top Half finish at Evens (Will Hill)
7.5pts Bolton to be relegated at 4/5 (Betfair/PP) at 4/5
2pts Bristol Rovers to be relegated at 6/1 (Bet Victor)