Sheffield Wednesday v Luton
Luton came up from League One with a cracking 94 points last season, and all the statistics about promoted sides suggest they should be eyeing a mid table finish in the Championship this season. The loss of Nathan Jones last season was certainly a concern, and whilst it appears the momentum of the year seemed to stay with the club under Mick Harford, he was replaced over the summer with Graeme Jones, and perhaps may endure a hard season.
They looked naive against Middlesbrough on the opening day, and a 3-1 win against an Ipswich 2nd string side shouldn't paper over anything.They have also been convincingly beaten at Cardiff, while West Brom recovered from 1-0 down to take the points on Saturday - ultimately winning the shot count 24-8 in that match and whilst game state played a part, Luton simply weren't good enough.
As for Wednesday, their opening win at Reading perhaps flattered them - but they certainly matched the Royals in that one. They then went out and beat Barnsley, before losing to Millwall last week. I've seen a few things written suggesting Neil Harris has it all right in that match, but it's hard to agree when you look at the data from that one - The Lions managed just three shots - Sheffield Wednesday took 21. On-target wise, it was a 9-2 count in favour of the visitors
All in all, there is no way Sheffield Wednesday should be 19/20 in this one, and the 10/11 is also acceptable if the top price goes.
3pts Sheffield Wednesday to beat Luton at 19/20 (Blacktype)