EFL League One
League positions can tell porkies at this stage of the season, and it looks like that could be the case with Blackpool currently topping League One after four matches. They have banked three wins and a draw, and recorded a +7 goal difference so far, but plenty of metrics suggest they are not in such great shape.
With the owners finally out of the club, it’s a time for fans of the Tangerines to look ahead with optimism, but so far they have allowed 70 shots – an average of 17.5 per match, and they cannot hope to sustain such positive results unless that metric improves considerably. They have also managed just 38 on target, meaning they actually rank only one place above Bolton in terms of shot ratio!
Taking a couple of matches as examples, they won 3-1 at Southend, but that match saw them out-gunned 18-8 and register just three shots on target. All ended in the back of the net. A similar thing happened at home to Oxford – where the visitors won the shot count 23-4 and on-target 5-3, yet ended up losing 2-1.
Blackpool go to Rochdale this weekend and the 2/1 available on the hosts looks too long. They won’t pull up any trees this season, but a mid-table finish isn’t beyond them and there is no-way they should be underdogs ahead of this one.
Staying in League One, Bristol Rovers could be worth a small investment when they host Oxford. The Gas don’t have a great deal of friends in the market usually, and often look decent value. So far this season they have won the shot count 51-39 against their opponents, despite scoring just twice in four matches. They did net three in the EFL Cup against Cheltenham and draw some comfort from keeping three clean sheets in five matches in all comps.
Oxford conceded four to Burton last Tuesday, and have now collected four points from their opening four matches. They got a credible point at Sunderland and beat a promising Peterborough side, but have not also lost to Blackpool (harsly) and Burton.
There isn't a million miles between these two, so Bet365’s 19/10 is worth a go.
Recommended Bets
2pts Rochdale to beat Blackpool at 2/1 (Ladbrokes)
1pt Bristol Rovers to beat Oxford at 19/10 (Bet365)