League Two - Best Bets
Crawley Town have been tearing up League Two this season - already scoring nine on their opening five matches, and conceding almost as many. They are top of the Expected Goals Table for the division, but also performing pretty poorly at the other end. In short, their results pretty much match expectations.
They face Cheltenham this weekend - a team who have not been as impressive. While Crawley have registered 93-66 on the shot count, Cheltenham have been just 53-57, so look well behind on the performance metrics. Crawley are worth a bet at odds-against in this one.
No side in the division has managed fewer shots this season than Forest Green, so Newport County will fancy their chances of taking something from their visit.
Forest Green are posting a 36% shot ratio at this stage of the season, which suggests they are way out of position in the table, and a long season could be stretching out in front of them. Newport are also near the top, but have a more impressive 54% ratio, which raises to 58% in term of Shots On Target. At 7/4 the visitors are slight value here in my eyes.
There is nothing especially remarkable about Leyton Orient this season, but they are steady enough, but they certainly have enough to put up a fight at Salford this weekend, who the market continues to over-rate.
It's easy to see why after so much was written about their budget last season and the men behind the scenes, but football matches are won by the players on the pitch, and right now those Salford guys aren't doing well enough. Their 58-93 means they have faced more shots than anyone else in the league, and are also posting just 38% of shots and 39% of Shots On Target.
As a middle of the road side, Leyton Orient are backable at 12/5 this week for this one.
Finally, I'm surprised to see Swindon as long as 3/4 to beat Morecambe this weekend. We backed the Robins last week, who may well have won had they not played the last 20 minutes with ten men. Results haven't really matched performances - they've returned a 61% shots ratio and been the better side in each of their five matches this season. Facing bottom club Morecambe should be a well winnable match, with the Shrimps posting just nine shots on target this season and suffering a -19 corner difference already.
1pt Crawley Town to beat Cheltenham at 6/5 (General)
1pt Newport to beat Forest Green at 7/4 (Bet365)
1pt Leyton Orient to beat Salford at 12/5 (Paddy Power)
3pts Swindon to beat Morecambe at 3/4 (Sky Bet)