Scottish League Two
We didn't get much luck in Scotland last week, but with a 23% ROI over the past couple of seasons North of the Border, we'll happily keep plugging away.
Albion Rovers host Stirling Albion, and the home side are too long in the betting at 13/8 this weekend. Albion have been a real mixed bag this season - losing last week at home to Brechin surely representing the low point (alongside losing 6-0 at Dunfermline), but they have also taken a win against Edinburgh, drawn 0-0 with St Mirren and shared the spoils 4-4 with Clyde. Things have rarely been boring.
Stirling have lost seven of their last eight matches, and we hammered 6-1 at home to Arbroath and 3-0 at Elgin in the League Cup. Ahead of last week's 2-1 defeat to Cove, they had failed to score in four matches. They look vulnerable, and I'd have to make Albion favourites on a neutral venue, so the 13/8 on the hosts is a little on the long side.
At the top of the table, Cove Rangers face Queens Park, and I'm convinced already this one is going to be a big match in the title race. All the shot data from the opening matches suggests these will be the two to beat, and we think over the season, Cove are likely to come out on top.
Shorter term however, the heavy favoritism of the divisions new boys could be a mistake from the layers.
Cove have registered a 62-29 shot count, and 28-13 SOT count. Both impressive numbers, but it does suggest that they can be vulnerable at the back and they have conceded nine goals in their last five outings - both teams to score landing in each of those.
Queens Park are following a different plan this season, and have conceded just once so far in the league, and have lost just once in nine matches. They look capable of pushing Cove all the way this season in what could be a two horse race, so 4/1 on them winning this one is too long with Bet365.
1pt Albion to beat Stirling at 13/8 (Will Hill)
2pts Queens Park to beat Cove at 4/1 (Bet365)