Sky Bet League Two
Forest Green – 4th in League Two, and surely the most over achieving side in the whole of English Football this season. They have won 21pts in their opening 11 matches despite achieving just a 39% shot ratio – an astonishing 99 shots for, and 155 against. Now the latter is the crazy number – they have faced 155 shots, and conceded just five goals. On the basic shot numbers you’d expect closer to 18 goals against – and that’s pretty much where the xG models are placing them too.
They face Crawley this weekend and luck is going to catch up with them sooner or later. The impressive visitors are attractively priced at 21/10 to travel home with all the points this weekend and are without doubt one of the better sides in the division – probably better than their current mid-table position suggests. Only Exeter and Bradford have achieved a higher xG total this season, although of course Crawley are less impressive on defensive watch.
Crawley played the Norwich U23 side in midweek, but that allowed them to make a good few changes to the side, and they need a win after a poor run later.
Forest Green go looking for a sixth consecutive clean sheet, and whilst that sounds impressive, they have drawn 0-0 twice and won 1-0 twice in that run, so they have generally not swept anyone away. Back the away side here.
Now last weeks 4-0 win for Forest Green came against Salford, who look a real mess right now – having conceded eight goals in two matches, and with just two wins in their last 12 outings and are a lowly 18th in the division.
They travel to Walsall this weekend and it’s a real surprise to see the hosts at odds-against to win this one. The Saddlers are smack average in the division – a 121-119 shot ratio (51%) and 42-38 (51%) on-target, they don’t stand out from the crowd one way or another. Comparing those numbers to Salford make great reading however (139-167) and (47-54), while the (-42) corner difference is also hugely telling for Salford as a side allowing their opponents far too much freedom in the last third.
After a poor start to the season, Walsall have now banked four wins in a row – with Darrell Clarke now gelling his squad together and getting the rewards at last.
Finally, Leyton Orient look a big price at 29/10 to win at Northampton this week – with arguably little between the sides in terms of quality. It would be no massive shock to see the away team turn in a decent performance to steal the points.
Northampton are currently sitting 13th, after four wins from their opening 11 matches, yielding 15 points. With a +2 goal difference so far, the majority of the xG models suggest they have probably achieved about what they have deserved thus far this season and are now four matches unbeaten.
Orient haven’t won for five now, but their luck has perhaps been against them so far this season. They have won just twice, collecting 10 points, and recording a -6 goal difference. The models pitch them somewhere nearer 15 points and with an almost level goal difference, so they could well be a few points better off than they are.
Recommended Bets
2pts Crawley to beat Forest Green at 21/10 (Bet365)
2pts Walsall to beat Salford at 6/5 (Bet365)
1pt Leyton Orient to beat Northampton at 29/10 (Bet365)