Sky Bet League One
There are a wealth of bets to hit in League One this weekend, all at decent prices
Let’s start at Wycombe, who have provided a few winners for us already this season. They face Peterborough and are being written off unduly by the market ahead of this one – priced up at 9/5 to make home advantage count and beat their free-scoring visitors.
League table wise, The Chairboys are second only to Ipswich Town, having won six and drawn four of their opening 11 matches. With 167 efforts on their opponents goal, they also boast the most aggressive front line in the division on the stats so far, and 50 of those have hit the target – bettered only by Ipswich and Coventry. Overall their shot data reads 167-116 (59%) and on-target 50-37 (57%). Peterborough have carded 137-124 (52%) and 59-28 (68%) on the same metrics, so are arguably slightly behind Wycombe, or at best around level. It is undeniable of course that they have been ruthlessly efficient.
Home wise, Wycombe have gone 5-1-0 in the league, and threw in a draw with Championship QPR in the EFL cup for good measure (only to lose on penalties), so are entertaining their fans this season – they have faced a few of the easier tasks including Bolton, MK Dons and Southend, but also put Portsmouth to the sword a fortnight ago. 9/5 represents decent value.
You know us by now – we often swim against the tide in search of the value, and we might be among a small number this week in backing Accrington to beat an Oxford side who are absolutely tonking along right now.
Oxford have scored 16 in their last five matches, without conceding in reply. They have lost just once in nine matches. They thrashed Lincoln 6-0 a fortnight ago. So why are we taking them on you must be screaming! It’s all about what they deserved, and how well they played, with our data suggesting there really haven't been performing as well as the final scoreboards suggest.
Their 3-0 win against Gillingham returned expected goals of 1.8 v 0.4 – a fair win, but not a thrashing, while the 6-0 win at Lincoln saw them edge the exG 1.2 v 0.8 – so an utterly different view than the ultimate result. Before that it was a goalless draw at Bolton, which was disappointing given the level of the opposition.
All that means Accrington are going off at a hefty 12/5 in this one with Bet365 which I just can’t agree with. They aren’t as good as Oxford, but they also aren’t far enough light to be such a huge price with home advantage on their side.
Staying with the home theme, Tranmere are pretty appealing at 17/10 to beat Shrewsbury this weekend despite getting thrashed 4-1 at Ipswich last weekend. The scoreline hugely flattered Town in that one, but it could act as a big kick up the rear for Tranmere for this more winnable fixture.
Most of my performance metrics put Tranmere ahead of their visitors – although neither are particularly good this season of course. The odds suggest the bookmakers rate Shrewsbury considerably better, and that simply isn’t the reality. At home, Tranmere have also taken eight points from five matches, scoring 13 times. It’s Tranmere’s ability to get goals which could split the pair here – they have scored in seven of their 11 games this season, netting two or more in five of those. Shrewsbury by comparison have failed to score in seven of 12, and scored two or more in just two matches. The hosts are clear value in this one.
Finally, we complete a home quadruplet of picks with MK Dons as they face Burton – priced up at 2/1 by Bet365. Dons have had a bit of a gruelling schedule, with midweek games for the past three weeks, but they have been able to operate an element of rotation, and will look to build on their 1-0 win over Fulham U23s in this one.
Make no mistake, Burton are surely the better side of the two in this one - a better shot ratio (marginally), a better xG ratio (marginally) and better xG overall. But it’s all marginal, and having faced a similarly busy run, they could be feeling tired for this one as well – I’m not convinced they can justify being as short as 6/4 away from home – opening up the value on the hosts here.
Recommended Bets
1pt Wycombe to beat Peterborough at 9/5 (Bet365)
1pt Accrington to beat Oxford at 12/5 (Bet365)
1pt Tranmere to beat Shrewsbury at 17/10 (Bet365)
1pt MK Dons to beat Burton at 2/1 (Bet365)