National League Picks
We’ve always been pretty solid when dropping into the Non-League divisions, and we’re hoping for that to continue with a Barrow win when they visit Bromley this weekend.
Bromley are reporting three key absentees – and will be without first choice keeper Mark Cousins through injury, as well as regular defensive pair Joseph Kizzi and Christopher Bush who are both suspended.
Bromley are currently top of the table after collecting 29 points from their opening 14 matches – an impressive haul no doubt – but their performances may not quite have deserved such a sizable total. They have achieved a 52% shot ratio this season (140-129) which is certainly not dominant as their league position suggests, while their (-1) corner difference is interesting too given their lofty position. A defeat at Yeovil last weekend may have sewn some seeds of doubt.
Barrow visit this weekend, and are a side I like a lot. After a very poor start to the season which saw them coming out behind in no fewer than five of six matches decided by a single goal, they have recovered and come here looking for a sixth consecutive win. Their shot data is hugely compelling – a divisional bet shot ratio of 57% (173-128) and a best on-target ratio as well (71-53). They are just one goal worse off than Bromley (+6) and have won the corner count 69-51 over the season.
Marathon offer 63/25 (just over 5/2) and that is great value in this one.
I’ve seen another decent non-league judge put up Notts County this week, but we prefer the hosts here given how many doubts there are around the starters for Notts County.
The visitors are reporting doubts around the participation of Nathan Tyson, Ben Turner, Damien McCroy and Dion Kelly-Evans, while Michael Doyle is suspended.
Neil Ardley’s side are definitely getting going, with three wins in their last four, but there isn’t a great deal to split the sides on the league table, and the underlaying performances point to Dover being the stronger of the pair. Dover boast a 55% shot ratio (Notts Co just 48%), while its 57% on-target compared to 55% for Notts Co. There isn’t enough to warrant a drift on Dover here, and they are value at 7/5 to win with Bet Victor – there home form has to pick up sooner or later!
Finally, I watched Boreham Wood recently, and was far from convinced, but their physical presence seems to be getting reasonable rewards at this level and they are over-priced at 85/40 to get three home points when Solihull visit this weekend.
Wood have collected 13 points from their last seven matches now – a decent run for any side in this notoriously close division, and wins over Dover and Stockport stood out. Performance wise, they have recorded 22-17 F/A this season, and have probably performed at a level slightly above mid-table.
Solihull have all been about home performances, with 15 of their 21 points collected at home. Tim Flowers is doing a decent job, and I have no doubt they will get their chances at a promotion challenge this season – most likely through the play-offs, but I am not convinced they should be as short as 5/4 to win in Boreham Wood.
Let’s take the attractive 85/40 with Bet Victor in this one.
2pts Barrow to beat Bromley at 63/25 (Marathon)
1pt Dover to beat Notts County at 7/5 (Bet Victor)
1pt Boreham Wood to beat Solihull at 85/40 (Bet Victor)