World Darts Grand Prix - Monday Part 1
Stephen Bunting v Jonny Clayton
We are unlikely to see an ultimate champion in this one - or even an ultimate quarter-finalist for that matter, and the betting opportunities look limited as well here.
Clayton is the marginal favourite and it's definitely easy to argue he might be shorter than the 5/6 which is available having recorded a 5-1 head-to-head, but the short format and double-in double-out always makes it a risky prospect.
On the 180s there isn't much between the pair, with Bunting marginally more prolific at around 0.24 per leg versus 0.21 for Clayton. Together though, in a close match, they should have at least four between them in order to get over the 3.5 line pitched by most of the bookies. Our model makes it 8/15 to go over 3.5, so the 4/5 with SpreadEx is great value.
1.5pts Clayton to beat Bunting at 5/6 (Blacktype)
2pts Over 3.5 180s at 4/5 with SpreadEx
Vincent van der Voort v Nathan Aspinall
Vincent van der Voort has worked hard to get back into the higher reaches of the darting world, but could still find the improving Aspinall too strong here. His opponent rose to attention with an excellent World Championships, and has since captured the UK Open and US Masters titles to really soar up the Order of Merit. I can't argue with the 4/7 on Aspinall winning this one. With the 180s numbers also around the right mark, this is one to watch and enjoy rather than stake hard earned cash on.
Adrian Lewis v Jermaine Wattimena
Our model ratings suggest that Jermaine Wattimena is the better darts player of the two at this point in time and it's not a huge surprise to see the market moving in his favour. Most bookies are struggling to split the pair.
The best bet in the match concerns the 180s though, and it is Lewis who should be attracting our cash. Wattimena has the lowest 180s per leg count of any player in the event this weekend at just 0.12 per leg. Lewis isn't exactly peppering the lipstick for this standard but he's close to double Wattimena's rate and should be backed at 5/6 to hit the most in this match.
2pts Lewis Most 180s at 5/6 (Betfred)
Glen Durrant v Krzysztof Ratajski
Durrant needs to start hotting up over the coming two months if he wants to mount a serious challenge for the World Championships this year (as tipped at 50/1 earlier in the year), so it would be nice to see him fly into Ratajski. It's a bad draw for both men who will have huge respect for each other.
Durrant is ranked 38th in the PDC Order of Merit, but remember he only joined this season, so has less than a years' earnings moving him up. Since moving across he has reached the semi-finals of the World Matchplay and International Darts Open and won two Players Championship events
Ratajski is highly capable, and it's surely just a matter of time until he makes a big breakthrough - but so far he's never quite shone on the TV stages for some reason. Durrant is probably the value at 8/11 in this one, although it's marginal for sure.
1.1pts Durrant to beat Ratajski at 8/11 (Bet Victor)