World Grand Prix - Wednesday
What a cracking night of Darts it was last night, with the Double-In Double-Out and relatively short sets format delivering a few shock results with the elimination of Gary Anderson (1/3 favourite) and James Wade (2/5 favourite). Fortunately we were on the right side of those, backing Mervyn King to extend an excellent record against Wade.
The second round continues on Wednesday night with four more games to get stuck into.
Danny Noppert v Nathan Aspinall
Nathan Aspinall is the solid 4/9 favourite in this one, but under the format we are in, it’s hard to make him such a hot prospect here, with the pair splitting their two previous meetings equally.
Aspinall is much higher ranked in the PDC Order of Merit (12th), but the £100,000 he picked up in the World Championships and then UK Open have played a huge factor in that position. He tends to either go very deep into tournaments or crash out pretty early, and the Elo based numbers we use don’t put an enormous chasm between the pair, so it could be worth taking a chance on Noppert at 2/1 in this one.
Nothing really stands out in the Average, 180s or Finishing markets in this match.
1pt Danny Noppert to beat Nathan Aspinall at 2/1
Dave Chisnall v Stephen Bunting
Both players created 1st round upsets and it’s Chizzy’s turn to be the hot favourite in this one, priced up at just 4/9 to progress. He’s a much better player and I’m not prepared to argue with those odds.
Chizzy builds his game around consistent maximum building – he’s the top player on tour for landing the 180s, and even under this format we’d expect him to deliver a maximum roughly every three legs. Extrapolating that over a match of around 16 legs give us a mean expectation of something in the region of 5.0 180s on average. Bunting is expected to weigh in with an average of around 3.7 for good measure, which makes the Under/Over 7.5 line with Ladbrokes look highly appealing at 4/5. It’s a strong bet that one. Chisnall landed five in 13 legs against Gerwyn Price.
You can also pick up 10/11 on Chisnall going over 4.5 180s with Ladbrokes, and that again looks a touch too long given his consistency in this respect.
Finally in this match, move up a couple of inches and you find the Double 20 – Chizzy’s favourite finish. He finishes 33% of his legs on Tops, and a further 14% on D10, so the 5/2 on him winning the match and checking out on either D20 or D10 is too long with Corals. It should be around 2/1.
2.2pts Over 7.5 180s in the match at 10/11 – Ladbrokes
1.1pts Over 4.5 Chinsall 180s at 10/11 – Ladbrokes
1pt Chisnall to win/D20 or D10 winning double at 5/2 – Coral
Rob Cross v Glenn Durrant
This one should be a bit special with both players now in with a real chance of the final, so they should deliver a great match. It’s the first time they have ever played each other as well.
We’re targeting the 180s again here. Cross is in for around 0.28 per leg, while Durrant will likely be a little below that at 0.25. Overall we’re projecting a run rate taking us to an expected mean of around 8.9 180s in the match, so the 10/11 with Boyelsports on Over 7.5 definitely represents decent value – our model makes it around 8/13 here.
In terms of picking the winner, the market suggest Cross is the more likely of the men to prevail, and that seems the logical outcome. Instead, it’s worth taking Betway’s 13/8 on the first leg of the match being won on a Green Double – both men’s check out rates make this less than 6/4, so the odds will be in our favour whoever gets off quickest and race down through the numbers.
2.2pts Over 7.5 180s at 10/11 (Boylesports)
1pt 1st Leg Winning CO Green at 13/8 (Betway)
Peter Wright v Jermaine Wattimena
Another day, another set of darts of Peter Wright no doubt. Regardless of what equipment he turns up with, Wright should expect to beat Wattimena, but the angle we like again is in the 180s, where it could pay to oppose the underdog.
Peter Wright showed at 1/2 to hit the most 180s, which was probably a small bet, but the price went quickly. Instead we probably want to be backing Wattimena to hit few than 2.5 with SportingBet at 6/10. He just isn’t prolific and loves the 19 cover shot (a bit of data about this in the future). He only bags a 180 once in every 8 legs long term, so this match would need to run on very long for bet to land, and it’s a strong bet.
3pts Wattimena Under 2.5 180s at 3/5 (SportingBet)