Scottish League One
Raith might well be top of Scottish League One, but they are certainly not invincible when they make the short trip to Clyde this weekend. Falkirk look the standout side in the division, with East Fife probably giving Raith a decent run for the money to be second best, but Clyde are not that far behind.
Clyde have taken 54% of shots in their matches this season – not hugely behind the 58% Raith have commandeered. It’s 56% versus 55% when looking only at on-target efforts. Our model really doesn’t put a lot between then, so it’s a real surprise to see them trading at 23/10 with William Hill.
When you look at momentum you have to favour Clyde more strongly – they failed to win any of their opening six matches this season, but have now recorded 6-2-2 since mid-August. Raith have been pretty strong throughout, but this should be a different affair than when they ran out 5-2 winners in the reverse fixture earlier in the season.
So we mentioned that the data suggests East Fife are one of the stronger sides in the division this season – they take on Forfar this weekend, who are surely contenders as the weakest side in the division with Stranraer.
East Fife are on a seven-match unbeaten run now, although three draws against Stranraer, Falkirk and Dumbarton should leave them hungry for points. Forfar by contrast have lost seven of their last nine, and while it’s fair to say they have kept those matches close in score, performance levels look to have been pretty mediocre from the shot-data and it’s a run which could well continue.
East Fife ran out 2-1 winners when the pair met in September, and we’re happy to side with them again at 8/11 this weekend.
3.3pts East Fife to beat Forfar at 8/11 (General)
2pts Clyde to beat Raith at 9/4 (Will Hill)