Sky Bet League Two
Forest Green were finally displaced at the top of League Two last weekend, and if you read our preview ahead of that Exeter defeat you might join us in believing that their luck could finally have turned. We may now be witnessing the start of a long drop down the division for the most famous Vegan football team in the word.
They host Mansfield this weekend – a side for whom results have so far not really matches expectations at board room level, and it’s fair to say performances haven’t been amazing either. They could have enough to strike a blow into Forest Green though in our view here.
Mansfield have taken a 58% share of all shots in their matches so far, and a similar 57% of shots-on-target. Recent matches have shown consistent levels, and those compare very favourably with Forest Green, who remain in a hugely challenging position when looking at the sorts of metrics which typically help us predict who is likely to win a match. FGR have posted just 42% of all shots in their matches this eason, and 49% of on target efforts. They have improved more recently, but those improvements have been marginal at best. Mansfield look worth a small bet at 9/5 at Sporting Bet.
Oldham saw two men sent off in their 6-1 defeat to Mansfield, so while we shouldn’t treat that result of atypical of Oldham’s abilities, the impact on this weekend is that they will face Macclesfield without defender Tomas Egert or midfield Filipe Morais. It also meant the Latics have now won just once in nine outings and I’m struggling to see how Macclesfield are as big as 11/4 to win here.
It goes without saying that the Silkmen have now become accustomed to winning matches this season, but they earnt all three against Port Vale last weekend, and have also taken credible draws against Crawley, Newport, Colchester and Cambridge recently.
We are also witnessing a slight uptick in their performance data lately – posting 50% of shots in their last six matches. If these two met on a neutral venue I would take little time in chalking Macclesfield up as favourites, and as such, given the suspension news from Oldham, the visitors have to be value at 11/4 in this one.
Plymouth started the season in a hurry, with a triple winning sequence, and have found results a little hard to come by since then, with just two wins in their last 11, but their performance data suggests luck should turn around for them again soon enough. Over their last four matches they have produced wins at Mansfield, Swindon and a bonus draw at Swindon as well. They look in decent shape.
They face Carlisle on Saturday who will have been inconveniences with a midweek match against Blackpool in the Leasings Trophy, and their run of four defeats in their last five matches ahead of that one doesn’t make pretty reading. It’s a long trip for Carlisle, and while it would be lazy to suggests that’s the defining factor in this one, it certainly won’t hurt Plymouth’s chances of inflicting a fifth away defeat from seven matches for Carlisle. 5/6 is widely available.
Finally, I doubt many tipsters will be picking Cambridge to beat 2nd placed Exeter this weekend, but for us it’s all about value pricing, and the 9/4 on the hosts is too long here. There simply isn’t enough difference between the sides for Exeter to be as short as 5/4.
Cambridge have accounted for 51.5% of shots on their matches, and 51% of on-target efforts so far. Both those metrics have been on the upwards curve in their most recent matches, topping 55%, and they have deserved more points than they currently have on the board all chances being equal.
Exeter are a decent side – borne out through their 2md place, but they have enjoyed more ruthless finishing than their chances have perhaps warranted – history show us that over performance in taking chances is rarely sustainable in the long-term and we could see a regression to the mean. Now don’t get me wrong – Exeter are a very good side – up there with the best in the division - -but Cambridge are also showing themselves to be competitive in this section – at least a top-half table contender, so won’t just lay down here. Only two sides won more than nine away games in this division last season – there are few open goals here.
As such, the 9/4 on Cambridge is too long in this one. Let’s take a chance.
Recommended bets
1pt Mansfield to beat Forest Green Rovers at 9/5 (SportingBet)
1pt Macclesfield to beat Oldham at 5/2 (Bet365)
1pt Plymouth to beat Carlisle at 5/6 (General)
2pts Cambridge to beat Exeter at 9/4 (Unibet)