Championship - Tuesday
Birmingham are doing a terrific job in defying their critics this season, and are currently just inside the top half – just three points behind pre-season favourites Fulham! If you’d offered them that at the start of the campaign they would have bitten their hand off. They’ve managed to avoid draws, which has certainly helped, and whilst they can’t be sure that will continue, they will fancy their chances of causing Blackburn problems on Tuesday.
The Blues have taken 55% of the shots in their matches this season, and 49% of shots-on-target, and gave Leeds a real fright on Saturday in their centenary match. More recently, they have actually accounted for 64% of shots in their last six matches, and that’s the sort of performance metric more commonly associated with sides challenging near the top. At home their form has been very good as well – winning three of their last four matches.
Blackburn have conceded nine goals in their last four now, losing to Luton and drawing with Huddersfield in that run, and those sorts of results can’t be tolerated if they are to achieve their ambition of a top-half finish. Blackburn have banked 50% of shots in their match this season, which has dipped below the 50/50 point in recent weeks.
Birmingham should be closer to even money than the 8/5 on offer with Betway in this one. They warrant an interest.
Unexceptional at home this weekend, Leeds should surely not be such heavy favourites when they visit Preston on Tuesday – a side just two points behind them in the table. With a +10 goal difference, Preston also top the charts in that regard, and a strong home record (5-1-0 and 18 goals scored for just six against) suggests it would be foolish to write them off this week.
Most performance metrics put Preston around 4th in the division – xG, Shots, Chances etc all feeding into this, and while Leeds are top of all those metrics, they aren’t far enough clear to warrant being considered the champions elect at this stage.
I just can’t be having a market trajectory which is currently trending towards Leeds going off as odds-on favourites by kick-off potentially. That leaves a swathe of value on Preston at 11/4 (Boylesports) which is frankly one of the best prices I’ve seen this season.
1pt Birmingham to beat Blackburn at 8/5 (Betway)
2pts Preston to beat Leeds at 11/4 (Boylesports)
1pt Preston/Draw Double Chance at 4/5 (Boylesports)