Championship - Wednesday
We tweeted on Sunday that Ipswich looked short at 5/4 away to Accrington, and it proved a decent call as the Tractor Boys went down 2-0 in an ill tempered match. Rotherham are a handful of points better off than Stanley, and travel to Ipswich this Wednesday, so it's interesting to see Town chalked up at almost the same price despite home advantage in this one.
It could be that a poor performance on TV has played an element in shaping this price, and that looks good news for those getting behind Ipswich.
Until Sunday's defeat, Ipswich were 11 league matches unbeaten, whilst at home they have recorded 5-2-0 record in all competitions this season. Performance wise, they have recorded a 58% shot ratio and 65% xG ratio. Nine wins from their last 11 may have been a touch more than they have earned, but it shows just what a good side they are at this level. They've also kept clean sheets in seven of their last 10.
Rotherham have produced decent results on the road this season - four wins and a draw from seven matches. Overall, their performance metrics have been pretty ordinary though this season - 54% shot ratio is good, but their 56% xG ratio comes up well short of the Tractor Boys, while both xG from Open Play Ratio (53%) and Shots in the Box ratio (54%) are well below Ipswich's records.
Town should be odds-on here so snap up the 23/20 with Bet365 before it comes tumbling in.
2pts Ipswich to beat Rotherham at 23/20 (Bet365)