National League North
Kidderminster are loitering in a lowly 17th place in the Conference North after collecting just 14 points from their opening 12 matches. Things need to improve quickly for the side, and their 1-1-4 home record hasn’t done them any favours, but we believe Tuesday night offers them that opportunity despite taking on a high flying Farsley Celtic.
Harriers come into this one under new ownership, with a local consortium taking control of the club at the end of last week, and they have already strengthened the squad with the signing of Ashley Hemmings – dropping down a division from Fylde.
Farsley currently sit in 3rd place, but things can change very quickly indeed at this level. They have collected 25 points from their opening 13 games, but the shot data suggests they have ridden their luck considerably this season. They have scored a goal for every 5.7 shots this season – the league average is one for every 7.6 shots. At the other end, only one goal has been scored against them for every 9.64 shots – again indicating an overachievement.
The stats are reversed for Kidderminster – their 18-18 goals F/A is decent enough given their position in the table, and they have scored just once for every 8.4 shots, and conceded once per 6.3 shots.
To present the raw data, Farsley have a 119-135 shot F/A, and 47-55 in shots-on-target. Kidderminster have posted 151-114 and 60-52. Even allowing for a little doubt in the levels of accuracy on these, it’s a considerable difference to explain away.
The home form is a small concern of course, but if you are reading too much into a sample size of six results, you could probably benefit from a little help with interpreting stats, and it would be naïve to ignore the shot data in this one given Kidderminster can be backed at 7/4 with Bet Victor. They will go off considerably shorter. It’s a confident bet here – they should be closer to 11/10 or even money in our view.
3pts Kidderminster to beat Farsley Celtic at 17/10 (Sporting Bet) - 13/8 or 6/4 still acceptable