Sky Bet League Two
Bradford have been posting really decent numbers all season, which has been mirrored by their 2nd place in the table as we approach the 1/3rd point in the season. Only Exeter have a better xG difference, and most importantly, they are improving as the season progresses, suggesting they are going to be a real runner in the promotion race this season.
They take on Port Vale this Tuesday, who whilst not being a complete open goal are certainly in the category of teams they would expect to be beating if the title run is going to come to fruition. Port Vale have posted a 51% shot ratio this season and marginally lower in xG ratio. 15 of Port Vale’s 18 points this season have come at home, so they are no great shakes on the road.
With six wins from their last nine outings, Bradford are worth backing at even money in this one with Bet Victor, Coral or Betway.
We cheered home Cambridge home against Exeter over the weekend – with a 4-0 well deserved. They get an immediate chance to follow up this mid-week as they take on Grimsby and should be backed here. A win would stick them right amongst the play-off contenders, and they are now regularly posting good performance data as the season beds in. They’ve enjoyed 55% shots in their last six matches and are creating plenty of chances to feature highly on the xG tables and shot quality tables.
Grimsby are a solid enough proposition, but a mid-table finish looks like the most likely outcome for the likeable Michael Jolley and his team. They come into this one having lost their last four matches, with Leyton Orient being them 4-0 at home on Saturday. He will look for a reaction to that of course, but I’m firmly with Cambridge in this one at odds-against prices.
Finally, Carlisle take on Northampton, and are not being given anything like enough respect in the quotes of 9/5 pinging about. I can’t sit here and tell you they are a great side because, frankly, they aren’t. The 20th place in the table they currently occupy is probably somewhere near right, and their -10 goal difference is certainly a concern. All the metrics we look at suggest they will be somewhere towards the lower reaches of the division.
The “but” comes with the opposition – Northampton are no superstars themselves, ranking just a few places above Carlisle in the xG table, and actually marginally worse in the shot ratios. Most recently, Northampton have enjoyed the better results, but a 3-0 defeat at Scunthorpe was pretty concerning. Two wins in their last three home matches are enough to persuade me to take a chance on Carlisle in this one.
Recommended Bets
2pts Bradford to beat Port Vale at Evens (General)
2pts Cambridge to beat Grimsby at 6/5 (Bet365)
1pt Carlisle to beat Northampton at 9/5 (Bet365)