Sky Bet Championship
Preston put up a good fight against Leeds on Tuesday night, coming close nicking the match when scoring late on, before flirting with throwing it all away even later. Nevertheless, their home record remains in tact – 5-2-0 with a divisional high of 19 goals scored in front of their own fans and just seven against. 17 of their 22 points have come at home this season. Small samples, yes, but always nice to have on our side.
Taking on Blackburn this weekend ensures some added spice is injected into this one, but that could be helpful for Preston who have struggled to attract the crowds this season and an extra reason for their home supporters to turn up could be just the tonic.
Looking at the performance numbers, Preston rank 4th for xG ratio, and eighth for Shots in the Box ratio, compared to 14th and 15th for Blackburn on the same metrics. A minus 20 corner difference is a slight concern (especially with Blackburn showing a +34 difference on the same column), but I’m willing to overlook that based on the shot data being strong for the hosts.
The crowds at Blackburn are beginning to turn against the previously irrepressible air of support for gaffer Tony Mowbray and that suggests all cannot be right at Blackburn right now. A promotion push was the promise made to fans this season, and it’s already looked well out of reach on the current trajectory.
We backed Birmingham in midweek successfully to beat Blackburn, and we’re going to stick with the improving Blue Noses this weekend. Over the course of the season, Birmingham have taken a 54% share of all shots in their matches, and a 52% share of on-target efforts. Over their last six that has increased significantly to 62% and 58%. In fact, on the six-game shot ratio table (is that even a thing!!!??) they currently rank 2nd behind Leeds. Probably not sustainable, but it does show Josep Clotet Ruiz is getting his charges playing coherent effective football now.
With four wins in their last five home matches, confidence is growing at St Andrews, so they shouldn’t fear a Luton side who continue to look shaky at the back, and who have lost five from eight now. Luton have conceded 28 goals in 16 games this season. 21/20 feels to big in this one.
2pts Preston to beat Blackburn at 1/1 (Sporting Bet / Exchanges)
1pt Birmingham to beat Luton at 21/20 (Marathon)