Italian Serie A
Just five points separate bottom side Sampdoria and Bologna in 14th place, but we reckon the real pitch performances could well have resulted in a much great distance between the sides. Understat.com produce an Expected League Table based on xG, which suggests Bologna might even have been good enough to be 3rd. I’m not sure I’d go quite that far, but I definitely believe they are a much better outfit than Sampdoria, so look value at 10/11 with a host of layers to come out on top here.
Last year Sampdoria collected 32 of their 53pts at home, and it’s a similar trend this season with four straight defeats on the road and 10 goals shipped away from home.
Neither side are reporting too much by way of injuries, so let’s get behind Bolgna here to bounce back from a tricky spell which saw them narrowly beaten by Juventus, collect a point against Lazio and go down to a 90th minute Roma winner at the end of September.
Another match which caught the eye, but won’t develop into a tip was AS Roma v AC Milan. I was eyeing Roma on the data, but a deeper look has revealed that Cristante, Mikhitaryan, Pellegrimi, Under, Diawara, Kalinic, Zappacosta and Kluivert are all out. That’s a huge loss, and there could even be value on Milan in this one as a result. I’m not going to suggest a bet, but hopefully it adds some insight if you’re considering an involvement in that one.
1.1pts Bologna to beat Sampdoria at 10/11 (General)