Istanbul Basaksehir v Trabzonspor
Istanbul Basaksehir host Trabzonspor this evening, and despite being the lesser famed of the pair, we think a home victory looks decent value.
Basaksehir have opened the season really brightly, and their 14-10 goal difference doesn’t really do justice to the excellent shot data underneath. They have taken 124 shots in their opening eight matches, allowing just 76 against, while on-target those numbers are 50-22. That produces ratio numbers of 62% and 69%, which are into the echelons of a serious title tilt typically. A +18 corner difference is also another nice piece of supporting evidence to put into the portfolio.
Trabzonspor have a very healty +7 goal difference (17-10) but their performance data is not quite so impressive. A 48% shot ratio (113-121) ad 48% on-target ratio (39-43) leaves plenty of room for interpretation about just how good they are, and they would certainly appear to be over-achieving this season so far.
There isn’t a great deal to call between the pair offensively (in fact, for shots-in-the-box they rank 1st and 2nd in Super Lig), but at the back is where the opportunity arises. Basaksehir have allowed just 9.5 shots per game (Rank 3rd), while Trabzonspor have allowed 15.4 per game – only Kayerispor and Ankaragucu have allowed more.
1.1pts Basaksehir to beat Trabzonspor at 10/11