Sky Bet League Two
We'll start our League Two coverage down at Scunthorpe, where the hosts look potential upsets when Stevenage visit. It's 22nd v 23rd here, with just two points between the two, so whilst we say "upset", it's pretty surprising to see Scunthorpe at odds-on here.
Scunny are performing terribly lately - just 40% of shots-on-target in their matches over the past six matches ranks them 22nd in the division on that metric, while they have also posted a 44% shot ratio of late, suggesting their season is heading south rather than north at the moment.
Stevenage have been posting pretty ordinary numbers all season, but they do look to be beginning to improve, which has been reflected with three wins and two draws in their last six outings now.
Bet365 give you 16/5 which is just too long given how close this one should be. Any of three results wouldn't surprise here and you can get 3/1 with a host of other layers if the Bet365 price goes.
Forest Green Rovers have probably overachieved more than anyone this season and regular readers will know we've opposed them a couple of times this season. They have managed to maintain a relentless pace for most of the season however, but performances are finally starting to warrant wins after significant improvements over the past month or so. They have lost just once in 11 as well which always breeds confidence, and we think they look a decent price at 21/10 to win at another over-achieving outfit in Cheltenham.
A 47% shot ratio and 49% shot-on-target ratio are mid-table sort of numbers, so its very debatable about whether they should be flying as high as third in the table, although its only fair we mentioned their +14 goal difference and unbeaten home form this season. With seven wins in their last nine, they won't find many people opposing them I guess, but you know us by now. We find the value where it lays.
Finally in League Two, Plymouth are a confident pick to see-off a struggling Grimsby side, and end a two match losing sequence. They lost 4-0 at Exeter last time out in League Two, ending a previous six match unbeaten run, and recent performances have been far better for the Pilgrims than the Mariners.
Looking at Grimsby, their 2-1 home defeat to Leicester's academy players on Tuesday meant they have now lost five of their last six, and the recent form numbers have showed them post just 41% of shots in their matches, and 39% of shots-on-target (last six matches). A long trip to Plymouth isn't ideal - especially with Luke Hendrie and Max Wright both left at home on the injury list.
Recommended Bets
1pt Stevenage to beat Scunthorpe at 16/5 (Bet365)
1pt Forest Green to beat Cheltenham at 21/10 (General)
2pts Plymouth to beat Grimsby at 17/20 (Bet365)