Sunday Euro Round Up
Extremadura v Girona
Let's start in Segunda this week, where Extremadura UD look a cracking bet at 9/4 to beat Girona. The hosts do have a couple of injury concerns, with centre-half Fran Cruz out, as well as striker Alex Lopez, but he's failed to find the net in 12 matches in any case, so maybe that's a blessing in disguise.
Girona have problems of their own with Juanpe (11/0 d), Aday (11/0 m) and Jozabed (6/0 m) all out. The match looks to have been priced up largely off the league table, although even done like that you'd argue the home side are the value. The shot data however places even less between the sides.
Extremadura have landed 53% of shots in their games this season, precisely the same ratio as Girona, while the hosts have managed 54% of on-target efforts versus 49% for Girona. More recently, Extremadura's numbers improve to 52% and 59% respectively, while Ginona receed to 53% and 50%.
There is no way Extremadura should be 9/4 in this fixture against a side who have already lost five of their six away games this season.
Elche v Mirandes
Elche are chalked up as strong favourites in this one, but the shot data suggests they are more than a little lucky to be sat in mid-table after the opening 13 matches in Segunda, and could more reasonably have expected to be down in the relegation spots. That said, they are only six points above bottom side Deportivo La Coruna, so there is plenty of time for that to change.
With just one home win from six attempts, they have hardly set the world alight, and four goals is a poor return, so fans aren't getting a lot of bang for their buck either.
Elche are rock bottom of all our performance metrics, with just 38% shot ratio and shot-on-target ratio this season (108-174 and 35-58) so it's hard to make than even money against anyone in the division.
Mirandes' numbers make them marginally above average in the division (around 53% shot ratio) and recent performances have been handy enough. It's enough to make the +0.25 Asian Handicap look a solid play at 23/20.
Benevento v Empoli
Benevento can go five points clear at the top of the table with victory over Empoli on Sunday, and there is every reason to believe they can return at Even money in this one.
The hosts are perhaps a little fortunate to be in such a strong position, but their 57% shot ratio ranks them 3rd in the division - the same as their shots-on-target. Empoli are significantly lower on the main metrics - well below average and they are probably fortunate to be in 7th place from the under laying data.
Benevento look an odds-on shot here, so the evens is worth a dabble.
Verona v Brescia
Finally, I'm surprised to see Verona available at 6/5 to beat Brescia given both the form and data of the two sides, plus the news that Brescia could be missing a couple of faces.
Verona currently sit 11th in the table, and have claimed points in four of their last six matches, including wins at Parma and against Sampdoria. They look to have their defence solid enough for a really decent season - only Napoli and Juventus have scored more than two goals against them this season.
Brescia are 18th with just seven points from nine matches, and relegation is a very real prospect. They have carded a divisional low of 36% shot ratio, and an even worse on-target ratio of just 32%. Lecce prop up a few of the other metrics, but it makes pretty poor reading across the board.
This is the sort of match where Verona can really help their season and 6/5 is a gift in this one.
1pt Extremadura to beat Girona at 9/4 (General)
2pts Mirandes +0.25 AH at 23/20 (General)
2pts Benevento to beat Empoli at Evens (General)
1pt Verona to beat Brescia at 23/20 (General) - take 6/5 if you can with Betfair Exchange.