National League N/S
It’s a slightly knocked down schedule this weekend with a few clubs in the National North and South still involved in the FA Cup 1st Round proper.
Spennymoor Town welcome Southport this weekend, in what is a fair old trek for the Sandgrounders, even if the map makes it look just a pop over the hills. The market suggests that the would be little to call between these two on a neutral ground, but I’m fairly convinced the home side are the stronger of the pair, and they should have every chance of finishing above their National League North rivals come the end of the season.
Spennymoor have recorded 4-1-1 at home this season, scoring 17 goals in those six matches. Only Kings Lynn have managed more goals at home this campaign, but it’s taken them eight matches. After 15 matches, it’s been a slightly uneven start for Spennymoor, with six home and nine away fixtures played so far. The opposite have been true for Southport, who have already completed nine of their home fixtures this season, while just seven away.
In terms of the data we always place such importance in, Spennymoor are showing a 59% shot ratio this season, compared to 57% for Southport – nothing conclusive in that, but their 66% shot-on-target ratio (veruss 63% for Southport) points to decent quality efforts. Most importantly though, their most recent form has seen them hammer their rivals – landing an 82% shot-on-target ratio over their last six matches, and 68% ratio overall in that spell.
The should probably be odds-on in this one, so the 6/5 on offer with a host of layers is worth taking.
Over in the South, Chelmsford are included in the weekend portfolio, with even money quotes pinging about. They are only loitering in mid-table but there is a lot to like about Chelmsford, who have gone 3-4-1 this season at their own place – it is away from home they have really let themselves down.
Recent performances have been strong, and it looks very likely that results haven’t quite delivered what might have been expected – it sounded like they outplayed Slough for most of the match last week without any success for instance.
This week’s opponents are Dorking – a side my data suggests are punching considerably above their weight in an unsustainable way. They are bang on average in nearly every metric we record – epitomised but their 49.5% shot ratio over the duration of the season so far. We expect a home win in this one.
Staying with home sides, Hemel Hempstead have shown their ability recently with wins over impressive Chelmsford and Havant, placing them fourth in the table, and boasting a very decent 16 points from seven home matches. It’s a big improvement on last season and they look like a club going in the right direction at the moment.
They host Braintree this weekend – a side in mid-table and trying to rebuild after last season’s demotion. The shot table tells a pretty dire picture – 237 shots against so far is a shocking reflection, and while they are creating chances at the other end, they need to plug the gaps if they are to improve on their current season. (as a betting man, I’m favouring them heading southwards in the table rather than building a play-off attack). They have a -55 corner count as well this season. Matches aren’t won on corners of course, but at this level, dominating set-pieces is certainly a big element and you typically see a strong correlation between league finish and corner difference in final season league tables. Enough that it shouldn’t be dismissed lightly.
A 3-0 home defeat to Hungerford and a 5-1 reversal at Tonbridge are certainly worrying results for Braintree, so I’d be happy to back Hemel at 5/6 in this match-up.
2pts Spennymoor to beat Southport at 6/5 (General)
1pt Chelmsford to beat Dorking at Evens (Betway, Sporting)
2pts Hemel to beat Braintree at 5/6 (General)