EFL Eight Weeks In
At this stage of the season I always like to revisit my outright selections, review how the early picks are going, and usually add to them with solid trends beginning to emerge as it becomes clear whose summer business was as effective as we expected and where cracks are appearing. I primarily use four performance metrics once we get to this stage of the season. They are as follows:
- Expected Point (taking Expected Goals per game, simulating those xG numbers to product expected outcomes of matches)
- Expected Goals (A measure of the quality of chances created by a team and how many goals we might have expected them to score from those chances)
- Expected Goals from Open Play (as above, but excluding set-pieces)
- Shots in the Box Ratio (a measure of the proportion of good quality positions created)
- Shot Ratio (a more general measure of attacking dominance)
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Championship
We didn’t put up any outright selections in the Championship in pre-season, so we’re starting with a blank slate here.
Reading have started like a 100m sprinter this season, with 22 pts from a possible 24. Their performance data generally makes them around the 6th best side in the division in my eyes so far, so while they are over achieving, they should nevertheless be optimistic for a really good season ahead.
Of those ahead of them in terms of the under-laying data, it won’t surprise many to hear that I rate Brentford and Norwich the sides to beat over the long-haul. The Bees are perhaps under-priced at 5/1 now – they have a bunch of good sides ahead of them in the table, so will be playing catch up for a while at least.
Norwich are twice the price, and have plenty of experience of getting out of this division. Under Daniel Farke they have a man who knows how it is done, and also boast a powerful combination of proven quality recruitment in the transfer market and a tremendous conveyor belt of youth talent coming through. They are topping out plenty of the metrics I care about and are nicely poised just a couple of points behind 2nd placed Bournemouth. They are my first pick for a bet in this division.
Bournemouth are worth a mention as well – the Cherries sold some big money players over the summer, but retained a seriously talented squad and seem to have begun well. The big question mark was around the leadership transition after Eddie Howe left, but Jason Tindall is doing well enough so far. At 4/1 though I’d still need convincing.
I mentioned Reading at the top of this piece. Over the past two decades, you would have needed an average of 74pts to finish inside the Championship play-off spots (top 6). With Reading already having 22pts from eight games, they need a further 52 from their remaining 38 matches – a run rate of 1.37pts per game. Over a full 46 game season, at 1.37pts per game, you’d score 63pts. Historically, that would see you placed 11th in the table. I’m more than happy to place Reading inside the best 11 teams in the division, so I have to project them to be on track for a play-off finish at this stage, and make them odds-on to achieve that feat. I mentioned earlier I rank them about 6th best in the division right now on the data I’m using, so their head-start makes a top-six bet a no brainer at 6/4 – I make them slightly odds-on.
Finally at the other end of the table, Birmingham look a tempting prospect for relegation at a hefty 9/1. The Blues have finished the last four campaigns in 19th, 19th, 17th and 20th, and have seen the likes of Che Adams and Jude Bellingham leave over recent years to balance the books. Based on the performance data this season, I’m putting them around the 19th best side in the division – somewhere close to previous seasons therefore. There are definitely sides in bigger trouble – such as Wycombe, Coventry, Rotherham and perhaps Derby, but I can see the likes of Nottingham Forest, QPR and Barnsley being good enough to climb away. At a big price, Birmingham are worth adding into the portfolio at this stage.
12pts Norwich to win the Championship at 13/2+ (Bet365, Betway 13/2, UniBet, 888 7/1)
10pts Reading to finish in the Top 6 at 6/4 (Bet365, VBet)
8pts Birmingham to be relegated at 9/1 (Bet365, Betfred)
League One
Pre-Season I put up Oxford as an each-way selection, who have started pretty poorly, and I’m largely ready to write that one down already being quite honest. We also suggested backing Wigan to be relegated at 2/1. It was a strong 30pt bet, and I remain very happy with that one. They are into 7/4 now and most of the data places them as the weakest side in the division on the evidence seen so far. They rank 24th on all the xG metrics, and the shot-ratio ones as well. They are a point off bottom now and without a win in six. Lose at home to Northampton this weekend and they would probably be odds-on for relegation.
Up at the top, I’d like to now add Portsmouth to our plan. I felt last season they had a terrible run of translated good performances into results, and surely deserved a better campaign. When the season was curtailed they were in fantastic form and might well have won the division had things reached their natural conclusion. Instead, they ended up knocked out of the play-offs on penalties and need to regroup and go again now.
There are performing superbly, and can strike from 5th in the table. Above them are three sides I rate highly as well – Lincoln, Hull and Peterborough, as well as Ipswich about whom I am far less convinced. Behind them are Charlton (due a fall in my view) and Sunderland (flying!). Pompey are currently ranking 1st on xPts, xG and 2nd on xG Open Play and Shot-in-the-box Ratio. 7/1 look a cracking price, while plenty are 13/2.
At the other end, I remain convinced about Wigan being weak. If you haven’t already got them in your plan, I’d strong recommend adding them in at 7/4. Four go down from this division and they look in trouble both on and off the pitch. I’ll increase my holding here. It’s also worth adding Swindon, who are 22nd after the early exchanges, but with a game in hand. They are scoring really poorly on all the metrics – especially looking short of goals since the departure of last season’s big hitters Eoin Doyle, Jerry Yates and Keshi Anderson
16pts Portsmouth to win League One at 13/2+ (Bet365 and UniBet 13/2, Hills, Freds, Betway 13/2)
16pts Wigan to be relegated at 13/8+ (BetVictor, BetFred or Bet365 7/4)
10pts Swindon to be relegated at 9/4 (Hills, BetVictor, Betfred)
League Two
Pre Season we led out strongly with a 24pt bet on Southend to be relegated at 11/2. Already bottom, and with a -15 goal difference, they have a huge job on their hands now and I’m feeling really happy with that bet. We supports Cheltenham (14/1) and Port Vale (16/1) in the outright market, with both inside the play-off places, but the performance data certainly rates Cheltenham a much better prospect than Port Vale, whom I would now be quite surprised to be among the leading contenders come the end. Cheltenham are into 8/1 now, and Port Vale into 12/1, so we should be happy enough.
I’m going to add Forest Green to the staking plan at this point. Rovers sit four points off leaders Newport, but are scoring extremely highly on all the metrics we should be using at this stage and are a progressive club in every way. They have a tricky match at Cheltenham this weekend, but will then face Mansfield, Barrow and Southend – a potential for a really strong haul of points.
This looks an open division, but the 7/1+ on them finishing top of the pile come May looks appealing to me. The rank 1st for xPts and xG, and 2nd for xG Open Play and Shots-in-the-box ratio.
I’m also adding my own team Harrogate Town into the mix at the point. They play really attractive football and are probably only second to Forest Green on my early season ratings. This one comes with a caveat though. The Town squad is thin, and they could quickly struggle if injuries start to appear, so whilst I think a title challenge would be possible with a clean run, we’re talking about a 46 game season here and you are bound to suffer some knocks as time goes on. I wouldn’t put you off the 25/1 offered by Betfred on them winning the whole thing, but I’ll instead opt to take the 6/4 for a Top 7 spot with a whole host of layers. You can get 15/8 with Bet Victor if you have an account with them.
At the other end of the table many firms duck the relegation market in League Two, such are the finances. For this reason I’d always keep well clear of backing odds-on shots as you never quite know who might be the next club in trouble. I am going to take a couple of pokes at this market again now though in the hope of finding the club who might, hopefully, join Southend in non-league next season. Those two are local rivals Scunthorpe and Grimsby.
At Scunny, injuries have played their part in challenging the club this season, but just four points from eight matches simply isn’t enough, and they have kept just one clean sheet in 11 games and lost their last six. With the next two matches postponed they are also going to face a mounting fixture list which could challenge their small squad.
Grimsby are well and truly past the honeymoon period of Ina Holloway. He won seven of his opening 15 fixtures when taking over last season, but has seen his side win just two from ten so far this campaign, and they are 19th. The squad has a youthful look, through necessity rather than choice and Holloway will surely not still be at the helm come the end of the season. It’s hard to see where goals are coming from, and at 8/1 they look worth taking a punt for the drop.
16pts Forest Green to win League Two at 7/1 (General)
12pts Harrogate Town to finish in Top Seven at 6/4 (General, or 15/8 with Bet Victor)
10pts Scunthorpe to be relegated at 11/4 (Hills or 3/1 with Bet Victor)
8pts Grimsby to be relegated at 8/1 (Hills, or 10/1 with Bet Victor)
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